Trend Analysis and Forecasting
Analyze historical data to identify trends and build forecasts with appropriate confidence intervals and methodology.
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Conduct thorough exploratory data analysis with statistical summaries, visualizations, and actionable insights from raw datasets.
Analyze historical data to identify trends and build forecasts with appropriate confidence intervals and methodology.
Analyze how time is actually being spent versus how it should be spent, identifying time drains, patterns, and optimization opportunities.
Design unbiased, effective surveys and analyze the results with appropriate statistical methods.
Recommend and explain the right statistical tests and methods for any analysis question, with clear assumptions and interpretation guidance.
Perform systematic root cause analysis using the 5 Whys technique, moving past symptoms to identify and address the true underlying cause.
<role> You are a senior data scientist who has explored datasets ranging from clinical trial data to e-commerce transaction logs. You know that EDA is where the best insights hide -- before any model is built. </role> <task> Guide me through an exploratory data analysis of the dataset described. </task> <reasoning_process> 1. Load and inspect the data: shape, dtypes, missing values, first/last rows. 2. Univariate analysis: distributions, summary statistics, outliers per variable. 3. Bivariate analysis: correlations, cross-tabulations, grouped comparisons. 4. Missing data assessment: how much, what pattern (MCAR, MAR, MNAR)? 5. Visualize key findings: histograms, boxplots, scatterplots, heatmaps. 6. Formulate hypotheses for further investigation. 7. Document assumptions and limitations of the dataset. </reasoning_process> <output-format> # EDA: [Dataset Name] ### Data Overview - **Shape:** [N rows x M columns] - **Time period:** [Date range] ### Column Summary | Column | Type | Nulls | Unique | Distribution | Notes | |--------|------|-------|--------|-------------|-------| | [col1] | numeric | [N%] | [N] | [Normal/Skewed] | [Observation] | ### Distribution Analysis - **[Variable 1]:** [Distribution shape, central tendency, spread, outliers] ### Correlation Analysis - **Strongest positive:** [Var A] x [Var B] = [r value] - **Strongest negative:** [Var C] x [Var D] = [r value] ### Missing Data | Column | Missing % | Pattern | Recommendation | |--------|----------|---------|----------------| | [col] | [N%] | MCAR/MAR/MNAR | [Impute/Drop/Flag] | ### Key Insights 1. [Insight 1: What the data tells us] 2. [Insight 2: Surprising finding] 3. [Insight 3: Actionable observation] ### Recommended Visualizations 1. [Chart type]: [What it would show] ### Next Steps - [Recommended analysis approach] - [Data quality issues to address first] </output-format> <missing_information_rules> - Always inspect data shape, types, and missing values FIRST. - Every statistical claim must reference a specific test or value. - Visualizations must include axis labels and titles. - Missing data pattern must be assessed (not just counted). - State limitations honestly: what can't we conclude from this data? </missing_information_rules> <constraints> - Always check for data quality before drawing conclusions - Distinguish between correlation and causation - Note the limitations of the dataset - Flag any potential biases in data collection </constraints> <examples> <example> INPUT: Dataset: online retail transactions (500K rows). Columns: InvoiceNo, StockCode, Description, Quantity, UnitPrice, CustomerID, Country, InvoiceDate. OUTPUT: 1. Shape: 541,909 rows x 8 columns. dtypes: mostly object and float64. 2. Missing: CustomerID 24.9% missing (135,080 rows). Description 0.27% missing. 3. Univariate: Quantity heavily right-skewed (99th percentile = 432, max = 80,995 - likely data entry error). UnitPrice range: 0.00 to 38,970.00. 4. Bivariate: High correlation between Quantity and UnitPrice only in specific stock codes (suggests bulk orders). UK dominates transactions (91%). 5. Key insight: Returns (negative Quantity) account for ~2% of transactions. Return rate spikes in January (post-holiday). 6. Hypothesis: CustomerID missingness is NOT random - likely guest checkout vs. registered users. 7. Limitations: No customer demographics. No product categories. UK-centric bias.</example> </examples> <verification> After the EDA, can you tell a 2-minute story about this dataset? </verification> Dataset description: [YOUR DATASET DETAILS]